Honduras: The Fight for Popular Sovereignty

With preliminary results showing a razor‑thin margin between National Party candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura and Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, the National Electoral Council (CNE) flagged roughly 15% of tally sheets (actas) as “inconsistent.”  Hundreds of thousands of votes were left in limbo,preventing the proclamation of official results and placing extraordinary strain on the country’s electoral institutions. 

This crisis did not emerge in a vacuum. In the weeks leading up to the vote, the Observatory of the Progressive International issued repeated alerts regarding threats to Honduras’s democratic process. These included disturbing audio recordings alleging a coordinated plot involving senior opposition figures, a CNE councillor, and elements within the armed forces, as well as a visible escalation of foreign political pressure emanating from Washington. The Observatory warned that such maneuvers—designed to delegitimize institutions and favor US president Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, Nasry “Tito” Asfura—risked turning a close election into a trigger for destabilization, rather than allowing lawful, transparent procedures to deliver a legitimate  democratic outcome. 

From election night onward, the crisis was driven by a combination of malfunction and politicization. CNE Councillor Marlon Ochoa and government authorities warned that thevote‑counting system was hampered  by delays in the handling of electoral materials and serious technical deficiencies in tools to tabulate votes. 

These concerns were echoed by the COPPPAL International Electoral Observation Mission, which argued that the “irregularities and delays” in  Honduras’s post‑election count stemmed above all from structural  weaknesses in the the Preliminary Results Transmission System (TREP)—problems that had already been identified by the CNE weeks before election day. COPPPAL cited the absence of independent audits, insufficiently detailed security controls, and the use of technologies not validated by all electoral stakeholders. The Mission warned that these shortcomings could affect both the speed and the integrity of the results transmission and called for a complete recount, including a vote-by-vote review with the presence of parties, candidates, and observers, as the most credible means to restore public confidence. 

Trump’s direct interference—including the public blackmail of the Honduran people,  endorsement of Asfura, and pardon of former president and convicted drug trafficker Juan Orlando Hernández—has inflamed polarization and raised political tensions. Honduran authorities and political actors across the spectrum denounced these actions as external interference that undermined national sovereignty.

Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla denounced election regularities and pressed for a thorough recount. President Xiomara Castro and LIBRE candidate Rixi Moncada called the process an “electoral coup” and similarly called for a full recount, announcing their intention  to raise the case before international institutions. As results publication slowed and protests mounted, the Permanent Commission of the National Congress announced it would not validate the election results due to foreign interference. In response, the Organization of American States electoral observation mission, underscored in its formal address to the Permanent Council, that no state authority other than the CNE is legally empowered to determine the validity of elections.

As the dispute sharpened, CNE Councillor Marlon Ochoa publicly denounced what he described as an unacceptable narrowing of verification. He demanded a vote‑by‑vote recount for the entire presidential race across all polling boards, arguing that anything less would demand “blind” public faith in a process already undermined by documented inconsistencies. The other two CNE councillors rejected this proposal, instead limiting the recount to only 1,081 tally sheets (actas), approximately 5.6% of the total. Meanwhile, the special recount of the inconsistent tally sheets has been repeatedly delayed by administrative and political obstacles, including disputes inside the CNE itself.

The international dimension of the crisis was further highlighted during an extraordinary session of the OAS Permanent Council on 15 December. The OAS Electoral Observation Mission’s chief, Eladio Loizaga, reported that the Mission had observed delays and a lack of expertise in technological execution, but “no malice or evident manipulation” of materials or computer systems. The session—requested by multiple OAS member states—reflected heightened regional concern over Honduras’s unresolved election. Speaking on behalf of the Honduran government,Deputy Foreign Minister Gerardo Torres denounced what he described as  “open interference” by President Trump and criticized the OAS report for omitting key concerns about foreign pressure, interference and intimidation, widening the gap between the OAS’ conclusions and the Honduran government’s assessment.

Meanwhile, protests erupted in the capital Tegucigalpa. On the night of 15 December, supporters of the LIBRE party gathered outside the INFOP complex, where electoral materials are being safeguarded,to demand transparency in the stalled post‑electoral process. Security forces dispersed the crowd using water cannons, with reports of at least one demonstrator injured and property damage in the area. President Castro subsequently condemned what she described as the “repression” of citizens exercising a democratic rights and ordered investigations into the use of force, instructing authorities to identify and remove from office those responsible of carrying out disproportionate actions. 

More than two weeks after election day, Honduras remains without certified presidential election results. The recount process continues under intense strain while uncertainty and mistrust persist across Honduran society. 

The Observatory of the Progressive International calls on the international community—particularly electoral observation missions, democratic institutions, and civil society organizations—to remain vigilant; to insist on full, verifiable transparency through the recount of every vot;, and to reject all forms of foreign interference, coercion, or political engineering that would deny the Honduran people their sovereign right to determine their own future through the popular vote.

Photo: Tegucigalpa