Five of the world's largest oil companies made $56 billion in profit in the three months to September. On Tuesday, US Americans went to the polls paying an average of $4.15 for a gallon of petrol. The US-Israeli war on Iran helped produce both figures. It also cost Donald Trump control of Congress.

Nine days earlier, Lula defeated the Trump-backed son of Brazil's former far-right president. That same Sunday, Serbia's student movement brought 14 years of right-wing government to an end. Across France, a revolt that began over missing teachers in a single school has forced the government into concessions — and refuses to die down in the face of repression. In Bangladesh, production has stopped at hundreds of garment factories as striking workers demand wages they can live on.

The Reactionary International's forward march appears to have halted. For now.

The US midterms expose a contradiction at the heart of the MAGA project. Principally, the president who promised to end foreign wars keeps starting them. In March, after bombing Iran and killing its leader, Trump declared that his favourite outcome would be to take the country’s oil. By October, as fuel prices approached record highs, he was boasting that “America” was making "an absolute fortune" from the conflict. The oil companies certainly were. But the disruption of Gulf oil and gas drove up inflation, with petrol accounting for more than half of September's monthly increase in consumer prices.

As Andreas Malm, who was barred from entry to the UK this week over his solidarity with Palestine, argues in his recent essay for Tribune, ’ Ultra-Fossil Empire’, Washington's pursuit of control over the world's oil reserves is inseparable from the profits they promise. But the costs of that pursuit are hitting US families at the petrol pump and in the weekly shop.

The election also brought historic victories for the socialist left. Six candidates backed by Progressive International member Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) won seats in Congress. In Denver, Melat Kiros defeated a 15-term Democratic incumbent. In New York, Darializa Avila Chevalier unseated the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. In Los Angeles, Angela Gonzales-Torres defeated an incumbent backed by the pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC. Their campaigns rejected corporate donations and demanded universal healthcare, the abolition of ICE and an end to US arms to Israel. Across the country, more than 130 DSA chapters mobilised, securing at least 105 electoral and ballot-measure victories according to the organisation's preliminary count.

Voters also challenged one of the most powerful industries behind Trump's political project. Across the United States, communities voted to restrict the construction of data centres, opposing the enormous demands they place on electricity grids and water supplies. In Sunbury, Ohio, nearly four in five voters backed a prohibition on large facilities that threatens Amazon's proposed $2 billion development. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican governor Greg Abbott after promising a moratorium on new data centres until communities were protected.

Trump failed to get his way in Brazil too. Washington had brazenly backed Flávio Bolsonaro, challenging Brazil’s electoral authorities and placing tariffs on the country’s goods. Bolsonaro finished ahead in the first round. But in the second, Lula overturned his lead to win a fourth presidential term by more than 4.4 million votes. Lula's victory has also frustrated Washington's plans for rapid access to Brazil's rare earths, which his government intends to process and manufacture domestically. Bolsonaro refused to concede, slipped across the border to Argentina and has now set himself up as the “leader of Brazil” from his Miami exile. Almost 60 million Brazilians had voted for him. The forces that sought to return the far right to the presidency remain powerful, particularly in the Federal Congress, but their immediate objective has been defeated.

Serbia's result on the same day was more surprising still. Two years ago, a railway station collapse in the country’s second city, Novi Sad, killed 16, igniting protests against corruption and the government of Aleksandar Vučić. Students occupied universities and sustained a mass protest movement for two years. On 25 October, the student-backed list, organised without identifiable leadership, won 53 per cent of the vote and a parliamentary majority, ending 14 years of parliamentary dominance for Vučić's party.

Elsewhere, movements have won ground without waiting for elections. In France, protests over teacher shortages at a school in Créteil spread to more than a thousand schools nationwide. The government has now promised to reverse planned teaching cuts, cap some secondary-school classes at 28 pupils and replace the much-criticised Parcoursup university admissions system. On Thursday, at least 600,000 people marched in nationwide strikes demanding higher wages and better public services despite the deployment of 70,000 police and gendarmes. At least 448 people were arrested.

In Bangladesh, workers have brought hundreds of garment factories to a halt, blocking highways and confronting police repression to demand a minimum monthly wage of $240, up from the current $100. The government has established a wage board and committed to introducing a revised pay structure from December, although the increase remains undecided. Progressive International Council member Nazma Akter, president of the Sommilito Garments Sramik Federation, has pointed to rising rents, food and transport costs that have made existing wages impossible to live on.

Palestinian revolutionary Ghassan Kanafani said that "imperialism has laid its body over the world, the head in Eastern Asia, the heart in the Middle East, its arteries reaching Africa and Latin America. Wherever you strike it, you damage it, and you serve the World Revolution.”

Amazon is one of those arteries. In the United States, voters are challenging its expanding data-centre empire. In Bangladesh, garment unions fighting for higher wages have long demanded that the company take responsibility for the safety of workers in its supply chains. Last week, Amazon announced $28.1 billion in quarterly operating profit and plans to spend approximately $220 billion this year on capital investment, much of it on the AI infrastructure now facing growing public opposition. Amazon, the US’ largest clothing retailer, still refuses to sign the International Accord, the legally binding garment safety agreement established after the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse killed more than 1,100 workers. This Black Friday, workers, communities and movements will come together once again to Make Amazon Pay.

These are considerable blows for the Reactionary International, but far from life-threatening. Trump retains the presidency and its vast powers to drop bombs all over the world. Brazil's far right is a substantial force in Congress and on the country’s social media feeds. Amazon remains one of the most powerful and profitable companies on earth.

What could help the Reactionary International regain the initiative? One of the decisive factors will be the actions of the so-called liberal centre. After the DSA's victories in the Democratic primaries, thirteen centrist Democrats launched a counteroffensive under the banner 'Promise to America', pledging allegiance to capitalism, fiscal restraint and stronger borders. In France, where Marine Le Pen is the frontrunner for next year's presidential election, Macron’s government fire is turned on Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise, while the president of the Senate has raised the prospect of banning it. Faced with a resurgent left, the extreme centre appears more anxious to contain it in order to defeat the far right.

The past fortnight has shown that the reactionary advance can be stopped. Whether it can be reversed will depend on what happens after the elections, the strikes and the concessions: whether the organisations that won them can build the power to go further.

Latest from the Movement

Dockers say no to war

Dockworkers took action at ports across 22 countries on 30 October, turning an international call against militarisation into coordinated cargo handling stoppages. At Piraeus, around 3,000 workers joined the walkout, while port workers in Genoa blocked entrances and French dockworkers halted operations at major terminals. The action brought together more than 25 unions, including organisations in Italy, Greece, France, Morocco, Turkey and India. Workers demanded an end to the occupation of Palestine, imperialist wars in West Asia and investment in jobs and public services instead of militarisation. The Progressive International supported the mobilisation.

Belgian bank cuts DiEM25 off from its own funds

Progressive International member DiEM25 has launched an emergency appeal after a Belgian bank closed its account, leaving tens of thousands of euros in members’ donations inaccessible. The movement says staff salaries, office rent and social security contributions are now going unpaid, while the bank has given no specific legal, sanctions or compliance reason for ending the relationship. DiEM25 is seeking a new banking provider and calling for stronger European safeguards to ensure political and civil society organisations have reliable access to basic banking services. DiEM25 is running a fundraiser to cover immediate costs, which you can support here.

Palantir pledge reaches the Scottish Parliament

The Progressive International’s campaign to shut Palantir out of public services has reached the Scottish Parliament, where Green MSP Iris Duane has tabled a motion calling on the government to rule out contracts with the US surveillance company. The motion, inspired by PI’s global Palantir Pledge, cites concerns over the company’s work with US immigration enforcement and the Israeli military. In response, the Scottish Government said it “will not work with Palantir” — strengthening a commitment that comes as the company expands its footprint across the British state.

Egypt moves to shut down Mada Masr

An Egyptian court has ordered the closure of Progressive International Wire partner Mada Masr and fined its editor-in-chief Lina Attalah three million Egyptian pounds. Attalah was briefly detained after the ruling, while her lawyers say the court refused them adequate time to examine the case file and appointed another lawyer over her objections. Mada Masr is challenging the ruling as press freedom groups rally against one of the most serious attacks yet on Egypt’s remaining independent media.

Eswatini’s democracy movement calls for international action

Progressive International member PUDEMO has backed a new international push for action against Eswatini’s absolute monarchy after Action for Southern Africa launched a report in Britain’s Parliament documenting four decades of repression. PUDEMO is calling on the UK, Commonwealth, SADC, African Union and other governments to move beyond diplomatic expressions of concern and take concrete measures for democracy, accountability and human rights. The movement says sustained international solidarity must remain rooted in the organised struggle of the Swazi people themselves.

On This Day

31 October 1936 - The Jarrow March

The Jarrow March reached London on 31 October 1936. At the beginning of the month, 200 unemployed men left Jarrow in South Tyneside for 282 miles to the British Houses of Parliament.

Learn more about this history with this beautifully designed Instagram carousel.

2 November 1917 - The Balfour Declaration

On 2 November 1917, Arthur Balfour, the British Foreign Secretary, issued a public statement declaring Britain’s “sympathy with Jewish Zionist aspirations.”

Learn more about this history and the ensuing colonisation of Palestine with this beautifully designed Instagram carousel.

5 November 1975 - Operation Carlota

Cuba's revolutionary government launched Operation Carlota on 5 November 1975 to defend newly independent Angola from CIA and Apartheid South Africa-backed reactionary forces.

Learn more about this history with this beautifully designed Instagram carousel.

Art of the Week

Turmoil is an artwork by Iranian artist Tanaz Modabber commissioned for Berlin Tiergarten. The work manifested in three parts; the first is a sculpture made at the artist’s home in Tehran (تهران) in September 2022. The second and third parts were a digital recreation of the sculpture to be seen via VR in the park, and a musical score made in collaboration with Jeffrey Bossin, the carillonneur and initiator of Berlin Tiergarten’s Carillon, one of the largest bell towers of its kind in Europe, the bells of which can be heard from the Reichstag government building and the German Chancellery.

The tower, Turm in German, also holds diverse connotations. Bossin proposed the carillon to commemorate Berlin's 750th anniversary in 1984. This in itself recalls shifting borders. Turmoil also draws attention to the economic dependencies on Iran’s oil extraction. Tanaz Modabber is an Iranian artist and architect based in Berlin. Her works explore the collision between terrestrial and built landscapes shaped by economic and political forces.