Commenting on the dynamics of history, Lenin remarks that there are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen. But a rapidly heating planet has accelerated the pace of history; from the floods of Valencia to the fires of Los Angeles, the new geologic of historical time requires the renovation of Lenin’s famous dictum.

For the past 11,700 years, the earth’s complex climatic dynamics have held to an equilibrium, providing a stable environment for life with only minor fluctuations in average temperature. That era, known as the Holocene, has come to an end. In 2024, for the first time in recorded history, global average temperatures breached 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels—before the widespread industrial burning of fossil fuels began pumping massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.

As the Earth’s climate enters this new phase, we might reframe Lenin’s observation: in geological terms, there are millennia where nothing happens, and decades where millennia unfold.

The Holocene era was preceded by dramatic, rapid shifts in the Earth’s environment. Over 300 years, the last ice age was brought to an abrupt end as global temperatures rose 2.5 degrees, setting off a process that saw sea levels rise nearly 80 metres. These rapid changes capped off a preceding 7,000 years of slower warming—approximately 7 degrees in total—along with a 40-meter rise in sea levels, as revealed by Antarctic ice core data.

The changes to our planet caused by burning fossil fuels are poised to be as dramatic—if not more so. Already we have increased the average temperature by 1.5 degrees in just 125 years, with CO2 emissions increasing year on year. This warming is accelerating cascading effects: rising sea levels follow higher temperatures as ice sheets collapse. According to the latest scientific research, the rapid and irreversible collapse of both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets becomes “likely” if temperatures consistently exceed 1.5 degrees.

The earth has experienced higher sea levels than ours today. Around 125,000 years ago, sea levels were six to nine metres higher. For some of this interglacial period, sea levels rose by three metres per century.

Three metres of sea rise today could submerge New York, Shanghai, Osaka and Rio de Janeiro. 13 high-traffic supertanker ports are at “severe risk” from just a one-metre sea level rise. The International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s most recent research finds that one metre of sea level rise is now inevitable within a century and could come as early as 2070 with the ice sheet collapse.

These massive planetary changes inevitably ripple into human history. We are living through an era of immense upheaval: from the fall of Assad to the failed auto-coup in South Korea, to Donald Trump’s saber-rattling against Greenland, Mexico, Panama and Canada before taking office.

The dizzying pace of geopolitical upheaval and the existential dread of climate breakdown can make us feel powerless. Yet while we cannot stop the acceleration of history, we can assert agency within it. Things will not—and cannot—stay the same.

Without vast, coordinated efforts to dismantle the structures of domination, oppression, and accumulation that define our world, things will get worse. But in this age of uncertainty, the collective actions of people and their organisations matter profoundly.

Here we find our task for 2025 as the Progressive International: to deepen, strengthen and connect those democratic efforts so that no matter how our planet changes, we are able to live with security and dignity on it.

Latest from the Movement

Mwaivu Kaluka is free

This week Kenya’s Director of Public Prosecutions declined to prosecute the trumped-up charges against the Mombasa 3, three leading members of PI member the Communist Party of Kenya Marxist. Mwaivu Kaluka (CPMK Chairperson), Lydia Adhiambo and Walid have been set free.

Comet

Applications are open for Comet, a four-month training programme for youth organisers in Britain who want to understand the world and how to change it.

The programme, run by Climate Vanguard will teach participants about systems analysis, liberatory strategy, and effective organising with leading popular intellectuals. Find out more and apply here.

Jean-Marie Le Pen is dead

Jean-Marie Le Pen — war criminal, Holocaust denier, and founder of France’s far-right National Front — died this week. He died the honorary chairman of The Alliance for Peace & Freedom, a neo-fascist European political alliance.

Our project, Reactionary International, is tracking developments in the global far-right. Join its Telegram channel to follow its work and receive breaking news.

Art of the Week

Tyler Eash (1988, Turtle Island) is a Maidu 2Spirit artist with Modoc and Irish ancestry, born and raised on the unceded Nisenan Maidu territory of Táisidam (Marysville), northern California. The Maidu are Indigenous Americans and victims of brutal ethnic cleansing and forced assimilation.

Flying Geese, Eash’s limited edition for Progressive International was inspired by a similarity in the geometry of stacked security barricades with the Maidu basket pattern of the same name. By digitally collaging the temporary fencing over photographs of open skies, Eash seeks to transform a Western object of control and authority into an Indigenous symbol of freedom and solidarity.

This edition is part of a series inspired by solidarity with Palestinians from Indigenous and First Nations people around the globe. Read more and support Progressive International today:

https://workshop.progressive.international/collections/limited-editions